AFL 2012 Round 19 betting tips

by faststeady

This week sees some crucial games that could go a long way to shaping the final 8. The first game for the round is on Friday night, between Hawthorn and Geelong. We’ll slowly add our reviews for most of the interesting games as the round draws closer.

Hawthorn v Geelong

Geelong have beaten Hawthorn on the last 8 occasions these two teams have played, the last time being back in round 2 this year when Geelong fell over the line by 2 points, after trailing by 3 goals at three-quarter time. In fact the majority of those 8 wins to Geelong have been by under 10 points.

This clash however, sees a red-hot Hawthorn ready to turn the tables. They’ve absolutely smashed Collingwood and Essendon in recent weeks and go into this game against Geelong well and truly the form team of the comp.

Yes they are still missing Buddy, who’s been out with a hamstring complaint for the past 4 weeks, but the Hawks have shown in recent weeks that goals can come from anywhere. Lewis bobbed up with a bag against the Pies a few weeks back and captain Luke Hodge came back from injury last week with a lazy 5 goals.

Whilst Geelong look to be in great form as well on paper, they looked tired against Adelaide last week in heavy conditions, and it was only that Adelaide hit the wall in the last quarter that the Cats went on to win by what appeared a comfortable margin.

Hawthorn will be intent on setting the record straight this week and will show Geelong who’s boss.

Hawthorn are around $1.60 to be leading at half time and full-time, which looks better value than the short $1.28 odd they are paying just for the outright win. Given the Hawks jumped out of the blocks last week against Essendon and the Cats have been perennial slow starters this season, so the HT/FT double on Hawthorn looks to be the way to go.

I also think the line favours Hawthorn at -24.5 points and have been tossing up whether to take them HT/FT or at the line. It’s important to note that Hawthorn have beaten the line set by the bookies in 13 of the past 14 games, and I don’t think anything will change there this week. Hawthorn should win this game comfortably and show why they are flag favourites.


Hawthorn Half-time/Full-time @ $1.60

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faststeady has been a professional sports bettor for the past decade and focusses on non-US sports here at