Mundine v Geale Fight Tips, Odds and Predictions

by erich schulte on January 16, 2013

In 2009, Anthony Mundine defeated Danny Geale by split decision. It was a fair result, as there were plenty of viewers advocating each side of it. Over three years later, Geale is a big favorite in the rematch, available for at -303 and widely available at -350 (1.2857 or 2/7).


But he is not as much of a favorite as he should be and he is becoming more expensive at some books as the fight draws near.

This is not a hard fight for me to pick. Geale’s greatest asset is his work rate, which is my favorite asset to bet on. He charges forward and will out throw almost anybody.

Mundine is a retreating counter puncher who has a low work rate, even within the parameters of that style. Though Mundine scored a knockdown in the first fight, Geale was not badly hurt and Mundine is not a great knockout puncher, so there is little reason to believe Mundine can find a surprise KO here.

Danny-Geale-1All other things being equal, I will always take the Danny Geale side of a matchup like this. Geale’s style is the sort of thing boxing judges think about when they take some extra time in the shower. It is possible that Geale will throw literally twice as many punches as Mundine. All other things are not equal, however. All other things favor Geale.

Since 2009, Geale has moved up in competition as he has moved into his prime as a fighter, at age 31.He has made remarkable improvements in his boxing ability, while maintaining his hectic work rate. Following decision victories over Felix Sturm and Sebastian Sylvester, both of which were precious road wins in Germany, The Ring has him credibly ranked as the number one middleweight in the world, behind only champion, Sergio Martinez.

Mundine has fought progressively lower competition, culminating in his arrival in Las Vegas to fight a 41-year-old Bronko McKart before 286 spectators. After the fight, Mundine called out Floyd Mayweather. He might as well have thrown his hat in the ring for the lead role in Lincoln. Mundine is 37, he’s had 48 fights and he has moved up and down a lot in weight. Though his slickness and skill are still evident, they are diminishing.

So let’s replay the last fight with the fighters as they are today. Geale comes forward. Geale outworks Mundine by a wide margin, probably even wider than last time. Geale’s work is much better and he lands an improved percentage of punches. Geale’s improved boxing allows him to avoid a few more counters. Mundine is three years older and works even less. He can’t pull the trigger as quickly. Even if we give Mundine another flash knockdown, how does he win a decision?

Anthony-MundineThat brings us to the judges. Geale is the future. He is the future earner for the promoters who pay the judge’s fees. He is the future for the sport and has a real chance to be the lineal middleweight champion of the world. Geale already fights with a very judge-friendly style and the judges have every reason to be extra friendly to him. I’ll be surprised if this fight is close. I will be flabbergasted if Mundine gets a contentious decision.

We get so much value on Geale here for two reasons. One is that Mundine beat him. But that fight was effectively a rehearsal that shows us why Geale will win this time. The other is that Mundine is a star in Australia. Even his recent fights with overmatched opponents are PPV events down under.

Presumably, a lot of Australian money is coming in on the star and, frankly, not that many people outside of Australia are particularly interested in this match. Though Geale is Australian too, he is not the celebrity that Mundine is.

On discussion forums, you will hear the kind of logic Americans pulled out for Tyson and Brits for Hatton. “If he can just turn back the clock to 2007, Mundine can win this one.” Well, sure. If Mundine develops the ability to levitate, that could help his chances too.

About The Author

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Erich lives in Las Vegas, plays poker and bets on boxing.