Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals Picks


Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals Picks

In the 1st Final Four game on March 31st 2012 we have the #1 seed in the South Region (Kentucky Wildcats) playing the #4 seed in the West Region (Louisville Cardinals). The point spread opened at -9 in favour of the Wildcats, but quite a few sportsbooks are now posting Kentucky as -8.5 point favourites. The game total in this game is 137 – 138.5 depending upon where you’re betting and most of the early action has come in on the over in this Final Four match-up between the Wildcats and Cardinals.

These two teams played once earlier this year during the regular season. Louisville lost to Kentucky 69-62, but Louisville stayed in the game the entire time and could have snuck out a victory at the end if they dropped a couple more baskets. One thing that stands out to me is that Kentucky won the game on 17-57 shooting from the field and 3-16 shooting from beyond the arc.

Louisville struggled to shot the ball well against Kentucky in their 1st game as well, but still shot better than Kentucky. In the 1st game between these two teams the Cardinals won the turnover battle as well 20-14, but couldn’t win the game. Louisville has probably been thinking about their loss to Kentucky for months now and they’ll get the chance to redeem the loss on the 31st.

Kentucky defeated Western Kentucky, Iowa State, Indiana and Baylor to make it into the Final Four while Louisville was able to pick up wins over Davidson, New Mexico. Michigan State and Florida. Louisville has an impressive record on neutral courts this year (8-0), but beating Kentucky is going to be extremely difficult. In the last game Kentucky turned the ball over 20 times and shot the ball horribly, but they still won the game by 7 points.

Louisville has been winning games with defence this year in the March Madness tournament. The Cardinals have scored 69, 59, 57 and 72 in the tourney this year with the team’s biggest offensive output coming in their Elite Eight game vs. Florida. Kentucky will need to be able to play great defence, but I also think the Cardinals need to at least match their high of 72 points if they want to keep this game within striking distance against Kentucky.

Kentucky is going to win this game straight-up, but it’s going to be close ATS. The Cardinals are playing great right now, but the Wildcats have been playing better basketball than anyone. Kentucky has way more raw talent on their team and I’m going to bet that the Wildcats cover the point spread. Kentucky won by 7 in the 1st game after playing one of their worst games of the season, so I don’t see why Kentucky can’t beat Louisville by 10+ this week.

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