2012-13 BCS National Championship: Alabama vs. Notre Dame Picks

by Scott

2013-BCS-LogoThe #1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0) play the #2 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) in the 2013 BCS National Championship Game. At the start of the season not many bettors would have predicted that the Fighting Irish would be undefeated at this stage.

This year the BCS National Championship will be played at the Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on January 7th 2013 at 8:30PM ET. Last year we went 2-0 in the big game and I’ll be looking to do the same again this year.

Latest 2013 BCS National Championship Betting Odds

Point Spread: Alabama -9.5 (-110) @ 5Dimes vs. Notre Dame +10 (-108) @ Pinnacle

Moneyline: Alabama -335 @ 5Dimes vs. Notre Dame +275 @ 5Dimes

Game Total: Over 41 (-110) @ 5Dimes vs. Under 41.5 (-106) @ Pinnacle

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Notre Fighting Irish Stats Pack

Points Scored Per Game: Alabama 38.5 (14th) vs. Notre Dame 26.8 PPG (76th)

Passing Yards Per Game (Offense): Alabama 214.5 PYPG (83rd) vs. Notre Dame 218.8 PYPG (77th)

Rushing Yards Per Game (Offense): Alabama 224.6 RYPG (19th) vs. Notre Dame 202.5 (28th)

Points Allowed Per Game: Alabama 10.7 PPG (2nd) vs. Notre Dame 10.3 PPG (1st)

Passing Yards Per Game (Defense): Alabama 172.3 PYPG (5th) vs. Notre Dame 194.4 PYPG (17th)

Rushing Yards Per Game (Defense): Alabama 80.6 RYPG (1st) vs. Notre Dame 92.4 RYPG (4th)

Turnover Margin Per Game: Alabama +1.2 (11th) vs. Notre Dame +0.8 (23rd)

Strength of Schedule (SOS) Power Rating: Alabama (2nd) vs. Notre Dame (29th)

(Stats From TeamRankings)

How Alabama Got Here?

Aj-McCarron-BCS1Alabama started the year with a huge 41-14 win over #8 Michigan and they didn’t falter until November 10th, which is when they lost to Texas A&M 29-24 at home. Manziel lead the Aggies to victory with 253 passing yards (1 TD) and 92 rushing yards.

Bama had one of the toughest SOS this year. Besides the games above Bama beat #11 Mississippi State, #5 LSU and #3 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game to secure their spot in the National Championship Game for the 2nd consecutive year.

How Notre Dame Got Here?

Notre Dame wasn’t even really on the radar on the start of the season. They weren’t listed on most preseason polls other than the Coaches Poll where they were listed as #24. ND had a tough schedule, but they were able to win some sloppy match-ups.

The Fighting Irish started the year by beating Navy 50-10 in Ireland. They also had four wins against ranked opponents including #10 Michigan State, #18 Michigan, #17 Stanford and #8 Oklahoma. ND also beat the USC Trojans in their last game of the year.

Why Will Alabama Win the 2013 National Championship

Eddie-Lacy-BCSThis is the 3rd National Championship Game for the Crimson Tide in the L4 years. In 2009 Alabama beat Texas 37-21 and then last year Bama dominated the LSU Tigers 21-0. Alabama has been to the big game and many players have experience in the spotlight.

There is no doubt the experience edge is going to play a role in this game. Another factor being overlooked is that AJ McCarron has been a great game manager this season. He has a 66.8% completion rate and has passed for 2669 yards, 26 TD’s and 3 INT’s.

McCarron has the #1 QB rating in the nation (173.1). Even with those stats McCarron isn’t the fuel that pumps this offense. Bama has the 19th best rushing attack, which is led by Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon who is just a freshman and still improving.

Lacy has 1182 rushing yards (16 TD’s) and Yeldon has 1000 rushing yards (11 TD’s) on the year. The Bama defense is ranked near the top of every category despite losing six defensive starters and you can bet Saban will have plenty of schemes drawn up.

Why Will Notre Dame Win the 2013 National Championship

Theo-Riddick-BCSNotre Dame doesn’t have the experience that Bama brings to the table, but they bring a lot of grit. Like many people have said all year, this Fighting Irish team is built up like an SEC team and they’ll be able to hold their own on the field in January.

Just like Alabama, ND has two great RB’s that control the tempo of the game. Theo Riddick has gained 880 rushing yards (5 TD’s), Cierre Wood has 740 rushing yards (4 TD’s) and even the QB Golson has 305 rushing yards and 5 TD’s this year.

Golson has been fairly accurate through the air (58.9%), but he doesn’t have the poise or experience that McCarron has. ND will need to rely heavily on their run game to keep the clock moving and give them a shot to win at the end like they’ve done all year.

Both defenses are the best in the nation and the Fighting Irish have the talent to contain the big Bama RB’s. If ND can win the TO battle they can turn the tide in this match-up and win, but at the very least they’ll be within the point spread in the 4th quarter.

Key Performers to Watch Out for in the National Championship Game

The two RB’s on each team above are the main stars on each team, but there are many other key performers that need to have a standout performance for their team to have a chance to win the 2013 Discover BCS National Championship Game.

  • Amari Cooper (WR) – Alabama

Cooper leads Bama with 53 receptions for 895 receiving yards and 9 TD’s. Bama runs the football a lot, but they also use the play action pass with McCarron and Cooper is extremely quick. Notre Dame has to watch out for Cooper sprinting for the deep ball.

Amari-Cooper-BCS

  • Tyler Eifert (TE) – Notre Dame

Eifert is big, strong and has excellent hands, which is all you can hope for in a TE. This year Eifert has been the main target in the passing game and he has hauled in a team leading 44 receptions for 624 receiving yards and 4 TD’s. He needs to have a big game.

  • Manti Te’O (LB) – Notre Dame

Te’O leads ND in tackles with 103 total tackles plus he also leads the team with 7 INT’s. Te’O needs to make his presence known in this game and disrupt the passing lanes as much as possible. He’s a threat to make a game changing INT at anytime as well.

  • Adrian Hubbard (LB) – Alabama

Bama has struggled with rushing the passer this season, but Hubbard leads the team with 6 sacks. He also has 10 tackles for a loss this year and he’ll have to do his best to make sure Golson isn’t able to run all over the Bama defense.

  • Stephon Tuitt (DL) – Notre Dame

Tuitt has been a beast on the d-line for the Fighting Irish this season. Tuitt leads the team with 12 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss this year. If Tuitt starts getting pressure on McCarron it could be a long day for the QB and Alabama.

Special teams should play a huge role in this game, as I can’t see many TD’s being scored. Jeremy Shelley has been a perfect 11/11 in FG’s this year for Bama whereas Kyle Brindza has only hit 23/31 FG attempts for ND. Brindza can’t miss a FG against Bama.

Alabama vs. Notre Dame Prediction

Tyler-Eifert-BCSBoth of these defenses bring a lot to the table. The Fighting Irish have had success pressuring the QB, but they don’t force a ton of turnovers. The TO battle in this game is going to be extremely vital, as I think the winner of the TO battle will win the game.

This ND team has won five games this season by a TD or less including a 20-13 OT win over Stanford and a 29-26 3OT win over the Pittsburgh Panthers. The defense keeps them in every game and I expect them to do the same against the Crimson Tide.

Lacy and Yeldon are both going to pick up their yardage, but the Irish defense will keep them out of the endzone. The key in this game is for the ND defense to make sure they don’t let the speedy Cooper beat them with the deep ball.

Eifert also needs to play a big role in this game. He’s big and should be a mismatch in the passing game for the Bama LB’s. If he can haul in a few receptions and a TD in the passing game I think Riddick and Wood will be able to do the rest to keep it close.

Scoring should be at a premium with these two big defenses. I think Bama will win the game to be honest, but I definitely don’t think they’re going to beat the Fighting Irish by over a TD. I expect the score to be in the range of 20-16 for Bama.

Bet on Notre Dame +10 (-108) & Under 41.5 (-106) at 5dimes

About The Author

has written 66 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds