2012-13 NFL Divisional Playoffs Round Odds & Picks

by Scott

To start the 2013 NFL Playoffs I went 3-3 in the wild card round. My ATS picks (1-3) weren’t good, but I went 2-0 on the totals that I bet last weekend. All four favourites ended up winning and covering the spread, so the public ended up doing great last week.

We’re into the divisional round now and we’re going to be treated to some excellent match-ups on Saturday and Sunday. I’ll be previewing all four games on the schedule and also posting my best bets again. Let’s have a profitable week everyone!

2013 AFC Divisional Round Game Previews

Baltimore Ravens +8.5 (-112) vs. Denver Broncos -8.5 (-108) / Over 45 (-112) vs. Under 45 (+102)

Ray Lewis and the rest of the Ravens defense was dominant last week in their 24-9 win over the Colts. Indianapolis squandered their early chances in the game and as the game wore on the Ravens defense kept getting better and the Colts had no answer.

Andrew Luck had a rough game with 1 INT and 1 fumble. Lewis should have had an INT also, but he did lead the defense with 13 tackles in his last career game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Flacco was average, but the offense did play fairly good.

Bernard-Pierce-DRBernard Pierce led the Ravens in rushing with 103 yards on just 13 carries while Rice was held to 70 yards on 15 carries. Rice also fumbled the football twice in the match-up and it wouldn’t surprise me if Pierce is used a lot in this match-up on Saturday.

Denver had a 1st round bye last week and will be well rested to play at Mile High. The Broncos come into this game with a top 5 offense and defense. The offense ranked 4th with 397.9 YPG and the defense ranked 2nd by allowing 290.8 YPG.

In week 15 these two teams played in Baltimore and the Broncos won 34-17. Peyton Manning was 17/28 for 204 yards and 1 TD. Eric Decker had 8 catches for 133 yards and 1 TD while Knowshon Moreno rushed the football 21 times for 115 yards and 1 TD.

For the Ravens to even have a shot in this game they need to shutdown Manning. Demariyus Thomas and Decker both put up 1000+ receiving yards this year and they combined for 23 of the 37 TD passes that Manning threw during the regular season.

Baltimore sacked Luck 3 times including 2.5 sacks by Kruger who had a huge game. That was above their average of 2.4 sacks per game (15th) and they need to try and do that against Manning who was only sacked 1.3 times on average per game.

Ravens vs. Broncos Best Bets

The Ravens will struggle to get their offense moving against the Broncos defense. I think that the Ravens defense will regress this week as well. They’re playing arguably the best QB in the NFL and the Broncos also have a powerful rushing attack.

My predictions are that the Broncos will win this game in style against the Ravens despite Baltimore being healthy. The total has dropped by 1 ½ pts already and I think it’ll keep dropping. I’m betting the O45, but you should wait for a better number.

Houston Texans +9 (-117) vs. New England Patriots -9 (-103) / Over 48 (-110) vs. Under 48 (-110)

The Houston Texans beat the Bengals 19-13, but I wasn’t impressed with the way they played. Cincinnati was unable to mustard any sort of offense with consistency in the game, but now the Texans will have to travel on the road and play against Tom Brady.

Matt Schaub finished the game 29/38 for 262 yards, 0 TD’s and 1 INT. I was impressed with Arian Foster, as he had 140 yards and 1 TD on 32 carries. Schaub has to do more though, as the Patriots rank 9th against the run compared to 29th against the pass.

Stevan-Ridley-DREven though the Patriots give up 373.2 YPG (25th) the defense only allows 20.7 PPG (9th). Houston’s defense ranks in the top 10 in yards against (323.2 YPG – 7th), but they give up the exact same number of points defensively as NE with 20.7 PPG.

The main reason the Patriots haven’t been terrible defensively is because they lead the NFL in turnover margin (+1.6). If NE wins the TO battle they’ll have a remarkable edge in this game, as Brady and NE have the best offense in the league this season.

With the emergence of Stevan Ridley this year the Pats can beat you with the run game or pass game. The Patriots were ranked 4th in passing yards (291.4 PYPG) and 7th in rushing yards (136.5 RYPG). Ridley had 290 carries for 1263 rushing yards and 12 TD’s.

For Houston to keep this game close they need to pressure Brady. This year the Texans ranked 5th in sacks (2.8). Brady has been sacked 1.7 times per game on average this season, but with J.J Watt and the Texans d-line they should sack him more than that.

Schaub also needs to play better than he did last week because the Patriots are going to score much more than the Bengals did in the wild card round. I have a hard time seeing how this game doesn’t end up getting out of hand if Brady comes to play.

In week 14 the Patriots easily handled the Texans 42-14 at Foxborough. I don’t think we’ll see such a lopsided match-up this time around, but I expect New England to win this game by 10+ points. The Texans secondary will struggle against the Patriots attack.

Texans vs. Patriots Best Bet

My only pick in this game is New England to win ATS. You can bet the Patriots at -9 right now and I’d jump on that before it goes up even further. Houston didn’t instil confidence with the public last week and I expect this spread to possibly reach -10 pts.

2013 NFC Divisional Round Game Previews

Green Bay Packers +3 (-113) vs. San Francisco 49ers -3 (-107) / Over 45 (-110) vs. Under 45 (-110)

Last weekend the Packers took care of business against the Vikings 24-10 in the wild card round. The key for the Packers was to shutdown Peterson and the defense held him to just 99 rushing yards on 22 carries, which was a huge improvement for them.

The Packers offense wasn’t spectacular in the game, but Rodgers ended up 23/33 for 274 yards and 1 TD. Green Bay also forced Minnesota into 3 turnovers including 1 INT and 2 fumbles. The TO battle in this divisional match-up is going to be huge.

Frank-Gore-DRSan Francisco comes into this match-up with one of the toughest defenses and a new-look offense that boasts speed. In week 1 these two teams played and the 49ers won 30-22 at Lambeau and that was with Alex Smith, not Colin Kaepernick.

Kaepernick started playing in week 11 and has gone 5-2 since that point to end the regular season. Kaepernick has hit 136/218 of his passes since becoming the starter for 1814 yards, 10 TD’s and 3 INT’s. He has also rushed for 415 yards and 5 TD’s.

The 49ers had the 4th best run game (155.7 RYPG) due to Kaepernick and Frank Gore. Gore had a solid season where he carried the football 258 times for 1214 yards and 8 TD’s. Gore is also a threat to catch the football out of the backfield.

Green Bay did a good job of limiting Peterson last week, but they still only rank 17th against the run (118.5 RYPG). This week they have to go up against a duel threat QB plus one of the most bruising RB’s in the game in Gore.

I also give a huge defensive edge to the 49ers. They only allow 17.1 PPG (2nd), 200.2 PYPG (4th) and 94.2 RYPG (4th) defensively. I think they’ll shutdown Rodgers and we know that the Packers aren’t even going to think about rushing the football on SF.

Packers vs. 49ers Best Bets

I decided to not bet the total because it could go either way based on how Rodgers is able to execute. However, I do expect the 49ers to pick-up a win at home and cover ATS, as it’s currently just a FG. The rushing attack and defense will win this game.

Minnesota had a fairly mediocre defense, especially when compared to the 49ers who have one of the best defenses. The 49ers have amazing LB’s that should be able to cover the WR’s up the middle man-on-man. Take SF to win at home by over a FG.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-110) / Over 46 (-110) vs. Under 46 (-110)

Seattle went down 14-0 early against the Redskins last week, but they ended up winning 24-14. RGIII was injured and make a big game changing fumble due to a horrible snap late in the game. Seattle played well, but this will be a real road test for them.

Last week Marshawn Lynch did a good job to slow the game down a bit. He had 132 rushing yards and 1 TD, but he also had a big fumble at the Redskins 2-yard line when Seattle was still losing the game. Seattle can’t afford any turnovers this weekend.

Marshawn-Lynch-DRRussell Wilson went 15/26 for 187 yards and 1 TD. He fumbled once, but Lynch recovered it. Wilson wasn’t overly effective in the pass game, but he did end up pitching in with 67 rushing yards and some big blocks down the field when Lynch was running it.

The biggest negative from the game last week for the Seahawks was losing defensive leader Chris Clemons. I’m actually not too sure how the defense will react without Clemons getting constant pressure and I’m surprised the line hasn’t moved past a FG.

Clemons had over 30% of the sacks for Seattle this season during the regular season. If Matt Ryan on Atlanta is allowed to sit in the pocket the Falcons will dominate in this game. Roddy White and Julio Jones are two of the best WR’s in the NFL.

This will be a match-up between the Seahawks secondary and the Falcons passing game. Atlanta was 6th in passing (281.8 PYPG) while the Seahawks were 6th against the pass (203.1 PYPG). Jones and White can beat you deep, but Gonzalez is a threat too.

Atlanta had problems on defense this year though, so you can’t count Seattle out. Atlanta only ranked 21st against the run and they allowed an average of 123.2 RYPG. Lynch and Wilson will be able to run on this defense, but the Falcons need to force FG’s.

At the end of the day I think the Falcons are going to win this week. I had Seattle going deep initially in the playoffs, but Seattle had a shaky start against the Redskins and now that they’ve lost Clemons for the rest of the year I think that’ll hurt them.

Seahawks vs. Falcons Best Bet

Atlanta is getting no respect due to the way they finished the season, but they have one of the deepest offenses in the NFL. The Falcons were 7-1 at home this year and only last in week 17 to TB when it didn’t matter. Seattle was just 3-5 on the road this year.

About The Author

has written 52 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds