2012-13 NFL Wild Card Playoffs Round Odds & Predictions

by Scott

I had a rough week to end the season, as I was only able to go 5-11 in week 17. My overall record during the regular season ended up being 128-117-7 (52.24%), but I’m hoping to finish the year with a playoff run that starts this weekend with the wild card round.

2013 AFC Wild Card Round Game Previews

Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 (-110) vs. Houston Texans -4.5 (-110) / Over 43 (-105) vs. Under 43 (-115)

AJ-Green-WCThe Houston Texans (12-4) won the AFC South, but they didn’t earn a week 1 bye due to losing their L2 games. The Texans come into the playoffs on a 2-game losing streak and have to host the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) who earned one of the AFC wild cards.

Cincinnati has won 7 of their L8 games to make the playoffs this season for the 2nd straight year. Last year these two teams met in the wild card round and the Texans won the game 31-10. The big problem in that game was that Dalton had 3 INT’s.

Who Has the Edge on Offense?

Houston brings a T10 offense to the table in this match-up. Arian Foster had 1424 rushing yards (15 TD’s) and 217 receiving yards (2 TD’s) this season. The Texans rank 8th in rushing yards (132.7 RYPG) and the passing attack ranks 11th (239.4 PYPG).

The Bengals haven’t been great offensively and average 223.6 PYPG (17th) plus 109.1 RYPG (18th). Despite not moving the football consistently they rank 12th in points scored (24.4 PPG) compared to the Texans who rank 8th in points scored (26 PPG).

The WR battle should be interesting as well. Andre Johnson led the Texans with 112 receptions for 1598 yards while A.J. Green is the leader on the Bengals again this season with 97 receptions for 1350 yards. Green has 11 TD’s compared to Johnson’s 4 TD’s.

Both teams will want to establish the run game and the Texans have the edge in that department. Once the game opens up a bit I think the Bengals will have the edge in passing. Schaub has proven over the years he isn’t a big game QB in the NFL.

Who Has the Edge on Defense?

JJ-Watt-WCBoth defenses are tough and are evenly matched in this game. The Bengals allow 20 PPG (8th), 212.5 PYPG (7th) and 107.2 RYPG (12th). The Texans rush the football a lot and I’m a bit worried that the Bengals will wear down as the game goes on.

Houston has put up respectable defensive numbers, but the secondary has struggled. The Texans allow 20.7 PPG (10th), 225.8 PYPG (16th) and 97.5 RYPG (5th). Dalton needs to focus on avoiding turnovers and using his skilled receivers to beat Houston.

Another key battle is going to be what defense can get pressure in the backfield. This year the Bengals ranked 3rd in sacks with an average of 3.2 per game while the Texans weren’t far behind in 5th with 2.8 sacks per game thanks to J.J Watt (20.5 Sacks).

Bengals vs. Texans Best Bets

I like the defenses in this game. The Bengals defense is solid this year and I expect them to keep this game close. I’m betting on the under 43 points and also betting on the Bengals at +4.5 pts. I debated betting the Bengals ML, but I decided I want the pts.

Indianapolis Colts +7 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens -7 (-105) / Over 47 (-110) vs. Under 47 (-110)

Andrew-Luck-WCThe Baltimore Ravens (10-6) won the AFC North over the Bengals this year and they’ll get to host the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) in the 2nd AFC Wild Card game. The Colts were just 4-4 on the road this year and will have their hands full at M&T Bank Stadium.

Baltimore also struggled on the road this year, but they went 6-2 at home and have to be relieved about playing at home. Indy is 5-1 in their L6 while the Ravens come into this game on a 1-4 skid, which as seen them lose to CIN, DEN, WAS and PIT.

Who Has the Edge on Offense?

We’re going to see two different styles of offense in this match-up. I expect the Ravens to focus on running the football with their 11th ranked rushing offense (118.8 RYPG). Baltimore also ranks 15th in passing (233.7 PYPG) and 10th in scoring (24.9 PPG).

Ray Rice will be the vocal point of the Ravens attack this weekend. He gained 1143 rushing yards (9 TD’s) and also picked up 478 receiving yards (1 TD) this season. If the Colts can’t stop Rice it’s going to be a long day on defense for this young team.

Indianapolis’s offense is led by rookie Andrew Luck. The Colts rank 7th in passing (258 PYPG), but their run game is nonexistent most weeks (104.4 RYPG – 22nd). Due to a lacklustre running game the Colts have only averaged 22.3 PPG (18th) this season.

Two key offensive players that need to have a good game for the Colts are Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton. Wayne led the team with 1355 receiving yards (5 TD’s), but Hilton (861 Receiving Yards & 7 TD’s) has emerged as a WR that can beat teams deep.

Who Has the Edge on Defense?

Ray-Lewis-WCThe Ravens have had troubles on defense this season, but they still have an edge over the Colts. Baltimore ranked 12th in points allowed (21.5 PPG), 17th in passing yards allowed (228.1 PYPG) and 20th in rushing yards allowed (122.8 RYPG).

Luck had led the Colts to the playoffs and he didn’t have much help from his defense. Indianapolis had the 21st passing defense (236.8 PYPG), 29th rushing defense (137.5 RYPG) and allowed 24.2 PPG (21st). Stopping the rush will be the #1 priority for Indy.

Neither team applies much pressure on the opposing QB, as the Ravens average 2.3 sacks per game (16th) and the Colts average 2.0 sacks per game (23rd). The Ravens also have a TO margin of +0.6 (8th) while the Colts have a TO margin of -0.8 (26th).

Getting Lewis, Suggs and Pollard back in the line-up for the Ravens will give them a boast, especially since Lewis has stated that this is his last season. With this potentially the last game for Lewis in his career the Ravens defense will play very tough.

Colts vs. Ravens Best Bets

I find it unlikely that Joe Flacco will beat the Colts with his arm. This game will be won by Ray Rice, but the Colts know this and can stack the box. My best bets in this AFC Wild Card match-up are the Colts +7 and the under 47 points.

2013 NFC Wild Card Round Game Previews

Minnesota Vikings +7.5 (-110) vs. Green Bay Packers -7.5 (-110) / Over 46 (-110) vs. Under 46 (-110)

Greg-Jennings-WCThe Green Bay Packers (11-5) won the NFC North division this season ahead of the Minnesota Vikings (10-6) and now these rivals will meet in the 1st NFC Wild Card game this Saturday at Lambeau. GB was 7-1 at home and will be tough to beat, but it’s doable.

These two teams played each other twice this season and they split the series. The Packers won 23-14 in week 13 at home, but in week 17 the Packers just lost on the road 37-34 against Minnesota. This wild card game should be very close throughout.

Who Has the Edge on Offense?

In order for either team to have success in the playoffs offensively they need their superstar to perform. The Vikings rely on the running game and it has done great. Peterson gained 2097 rushing yards (12 TD’s), which was just 9 yards short of the record.

Aaron Rodgers needs to perform for the Packers to do well. GB ranks 9th in passing yards (253.1 PYPG) and the passing game has started to look a lot better with Jennings finally stepping up and catching some footballs after being injured most of the year.

Christian Ponder isn’t much of a threat in the pass game normally, but last week against the Packers he played great. If he can manage the football game like that against and Peterson can rush for close to 200 yards this game should be very competitive.

I still like the passing game, so I’m giving the edge to the Packers on offense, but it should be noted that the Packers haven’t had much luck stopping the run this year (118.5 RYPG – 17th) and Peterson has already shredded them twice.

Who Has the Edge on Defense?

Jared-Allen-WCGreen Bay has only given up 21 PPG (11th) on average compared to the Vikings who allow 21.8 PPG (15th). GB has struggled with the run, as mentioned above. Minnesota on the other hand struggles stopping the pass (244.2 PYPG – 24th).

Minnesota needs to apply a lot of pressure on Rodgers in this game, so that he can’t get comfortable in the pocket. The Vikes have sacked the opposing QB 44 times this year including 12 by Jared Allen and they’ll need to sack Rodgers a few times.

Vikings vs. Packers Best Bets

This game has the makings of a close match-up and getting +7.5 pts is too good to pass up. The Packers won by 9 pts at home earlier in the season, but with this being the playoffs I expect the Vikes to play a much closer game. I’m not betting the total.

Seattle Seahawks -3 (+100) vs. Washington Redskins +3 (-120) / Over 46 (-110) vs. Under 46 (-110)

RGIII-WCThe red-hot Seattle Seahawks (11-5) enter the playoffs as one of the wild cards in the NFC, but it doesn’t surprise me that they’re now favored in this match-up against the Washington Redskins (10-6) who ended up winning a very weak NFC East this season.

Two teams that were led by rookie QB’s meet in the final match-up this weekend. RGIII was special and got it down through the air and with his feet, but I was very impressed with how Russell Wilson developed and I expect the QB match-up to be close.

Who Has the Edge on Offense?

Washington has a considerable edge when you look at the offensive numbers. The Redskins have the best rushing attack in the NFL with an average of 169.3 RYPG plus they also average 27.2 PPG, which is good for 4th best in the league.

Seattle has started to gel offensively and have scored a lot of points leading up to the playoffs. The Seahawks also rely on their rushing attack with Lynch. Seattle averages 161.2 RYPG (3rd) and they now average 25.8 PPG (9th) offensively this season.

Lynch, Morris and RGIII are going to pick-up yards in the run game, but the QB’s will decide this game. Wilson has been smart at managing football games, but he’s going to have to make some big plays with his arm to come out on top in this game.

Who Has the Edge on Defense?

Chris-Clemons-WCSeattle will win this game with defense as long as they play like they have all season long. Seattle was tops in the NFL in points allowed at just 15.3 PPG while the Redskins allowed 24.2 PPG (22nd) on defense this season on average.

The Seahawks were in the T10 at stopping the rush (103.1 RYPG – 10th) and the pass (203.1 PYPG – 6th) this season. I expect them to have a bit of trouble against the two Redskins rookies in the run game, but I don’t think RGIII will beat them with his arm.

Washington had the 5th ranked run defense (95.8 RYPG) this year, but they were 30th against the pass (281.9 PYPG). Wilson will have a chance to beat this secondary and I expect that he’ll have to based on the Redskins success at stuffing the run game.

Seahawks vs. Redskins Best Bets

I lean towards this game going over the total of 46 pts, but I’m not betting the total here. I’m going to go with the Seahawks. If you got them earlier in the week at a PK you did great, but if not I’d grab the -3 now before it continues to go up.

About The Author

has written 52 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds