2012 NFL Week 11 Odds, Previews & Picks

by Scott

I went 7-6 last week on my picks. It looked better at the start, but I lost the last few games week 10 to drop my record. This year my overall record is now sitting at 79-60-4, but after this week it should be better. Take a look at my quick previews below along with my prediction for each of the match-ups this weekend. There are 14 games on the card this week to wager on.

Miami Dolphins +1.5 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-110) – Pick: Bills -1.5

Miami is on a 3-game losing streak and they were just blown out at home by the Titans. It doesn’t get much worse than that and I definitely think the Bills will be able to pick-up a home win this week. They lost 38-31 to the Patriots last week, as their defence was unable to stop Tom Brady most of the game. With the Dolphins struggling, the Bills defence should get some stops and win.

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (-110) vs. Washington Redskins -3.5 (-110) – Pick: Redskins -3.5

I really don’t like the hook in this game, but with Vick out with a concussion I think the Redskins win this game big. Philly wasn’t able to win games with Vick and after watching rookie Nick Foles last week I don’t have any faith in him. He looked lost when on the field after Vick got injured. The Redskins are fresh off a bye week as well, so take them to cover the spread this week.

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions +3.5 (-110) – Pick: Packers -3.5

Here is another game with the hook on the spread where I think you need to stick with the favourite. The Lions are on a terrible run this season and I think the Packers will blow them out despite being on the road. The Packers have won their L4 games and they just had a bye last week to prepare for this road game. Detroit will go down early and not be able to recover.

Arizona Cardinals +9.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons -9.5 (-110) – Pick: Falcons -9.5

This is a tough match-up. The Cardinals just had a bye week and the Falcons just lost their 1st game of the season. In my opinion the Falcons will bounce back immediately, as they won’t want to start a losing streak after such a great start. The spread is a bit higher than I had hoped, but Atlanta at home should score 28+ pts while keeping the Cardinals under their 16 PPG average.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 (-110) vs. Carolina Panthers +1.5 (-110) – Pick: Buccaneers -1.5

The Buccaneers are playing some real good football right now and they’ve won 3 straight. Doug Martin has this offence moving down field consistently and the Bucs are the #3 ranked scoring team in the NFL (28.9 PPG). The Panthers struggles on defence have been persistent this season and the Bucs should be able to win this game easily if they pressure Newton.

Cleveland Browns +7.5 (-110) vs. Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (-110) – Pick: Browns +7.5

This spread seems a little bit high for a Cowboys team that hasn’t been impressive all year. The Browns only have two wins this season, but they’ve kept many games within range. Richardson has rushed for 100+ yards in his L2 games and if he can do that again this week I think the Browns keep it close. Dallas will take this game lightly and may win, but not by more than a TD.

New York Jets +3 (-110) vs. St. Louis Rams -3 (-110) – Pick: Rams -3

Last week the Rams tied the 49ers on the road 24-24 after OT in what was a game that they let slip away. That loss has to have a bittersweet feeling, as they could have won. The Rams at home have played well against lower quality teams like the Jets and I expect St. Louis to cover ATS. The run game has picked up for the Rams and the Jets rank 30th at stopping the run.

Indianapolis Colts +9 (-110) vs. New England Patriots -9 (-110) – Pick: Colts +9

The Patriots struggled to stop the Bills last week on defence and the Colts should have success scoring as well. If the Colts are able to get a couple big stops they should be able to hang in this game. Buffalo barely stopped the Patriots last week and they still covered the spread. Look for Luck to test the NE secondary early and go throw for throw with Brady this weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars +15 (-110) vs. Houston Texans -15 (-110) – Pick: Jaguars +15

The Jaguars have just 1 win and they won’t be winning this week on the road, but -15 points seems too much. The Texans are on a 3-game win streak currently, but only one of those wins was a blowout. Buffalo was able to hang around with the Texans and I think Houston has let up off the gas pedal a bit. If the Jags can score 14 they should cover, but that may asking too much even.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (+100) vs. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (-120) – Pick: Bengals -3.5

Cincinnati played great last week and beat the Giants at home due to playing some defence. The offence also stepped up to the plate last weekend and played well. Green had 85 yards receiving and he should have a big game against the Chiefs. KC was able to stay in the game last weekend against the Steelers in the rain, but they didn’t play that well and I think the Bengals cover.

New Orleans Saints -4.5 (-110) vs. Oakland Raiders +4.5 (-110) – Pick: Saints -4.5

I thought the Saints would be able to pull out the win last week and I expect them to cover against Oakland. The Saints need to start winning a bunch of games to have any shot at making the playoffs after the way they started the season. NO still has one of the best offences in the NFL, as they average 27.7 PPG (6th). McFadden is also out again this week. Saints should roll.

San Diego Chargers +7.5 (-115) vs. Denver Broncos -7.5 (-105) – Pick: Chargers +7.5

I expect the Broncos to win this game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to cover the spread. The Chargers lost by 10 on the road last week against the Buccaneers due to giving up too many big plays. If they can limit Manning from making the big plays they should be able to keep this game within a TD. Look for Rivers to make some big plays in this one after throwing 2 INT’s last week.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 (-110) – Pick: Ravens -3.5

Big Ben is out for the Steelers and Campbell is useless in my opinion. Baltimore is a solid team and they should feast on Pitts now that Roethlisberger is out of the line-up. These teams hate each other and either team would love to run up the score. Rice will see a heavy dose of action in the run game and Flacco should be able to find his WR’s downfield once Rice opens up space.

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers – No Line out due to Smith/Gore Status Unknown

About The Author

has written 63 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds