2013 AFC Conference Championship Picks & Betting Odds

by Scott on January 16, 2013

The Ravens needed a late TD to force OT where they were able to INT Manning and score a FG to win 38-35. New England looked unstoppable once they got rolling and they dominated the Texans. The Patriots ended up winning the game 41-28 at home.

2013 AFC Conference Championship Preview

Baltimore Ravens +9 (-110) vs. New England Patriots -9 (-110) / Over 51.5 vs. Under 51.5

Flacco-Vs-Brady-AFCIt looked like Denver was going to win 35-28, but Joe Flacco went deep to Jacoby Jones for a 70-yd TD with 31 seconds left. It was a momentum changer and the Broncos were unable to get anything going in OT. Tucker kicked a 47-yd FG to win in the 2nd OT.

Flacco had one fumble in the game, but that was the only Ravens turnover. Denver turned it over three times. I thought Flacco had a good game, as he went 18/34 for 331 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Flacco threw a 59-yd TD pass, 32-yd TD pass and 70-yd TD pass.

Pierce wasn’t used nearly as much as I thought he would be, but Rice had 30 carries for 131 yards and 1 TD against a stingy Broncos rush defense that ranked 3rd this season. NE gives up 101.9 RYPG (9th), but they did good last week to limit Foster to 90 yards (1 TD).

Once Tom Brady got going he was excellent. He finished 25/40 for 344 yards, 3 TD’s and 0 INT’s. Four players on NE had 5+ catches including 8 by Welker who led the team with 131 yards. Welker always seems to step up in bit situations for the Patriots.

NE has been great rushing this year also. They rank 7th in rushing (136.5 RYPG) and last week they had 122 on the tough HOU rush defense. Ridley had 15 carries for 82 yards (1 TD) while Vereen had 7 carries for 41 yards (1 TD) and 5 catches for 83 yards (2 TD’s).

For the Ravens to even have a chance this weekend Flacco needs to have a big game and his WR’s need to be consistent. Last week the WR’s played well enough to win. Torrey Smith had a breakout game with 3 catches for 98 yards and 2 TD’s.

Anquan Boldin also caught 6 passes for 71 yards and Dennis Pitta caught 3 passes for 55 yards. NE has struggled against the pass all season (271.4 PYPG – 29th) and last week they allowed Schaub to throw for 343 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT.

Wes-Welker-AFCThe speedy WR’s on Baltimore are going to be a handful for the Patriots secondary to deal with. However, the Pats simply have too many weapons on offense for the Ravens to contend with. Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd and the RB’s are threats downfield.

The bad news for NE is that they didn’t escape the Texans game without injuries. Gronks is definitely out for the season. Woodhead and Chandler Jones both went down with injuries in the game and are questionable. Baltimore’s 2nd RB Pierce is questionable also.

Last year these two met in the AFC Conference Championship and the Pats won 23-20, so this rematch means a lot to BAL. In that game the Ravens almost won on a late TD and they could have forced OT, but Cundiff missed a 32-yd chip shot with 11 seconds.

Ravens vs. Patriots Best Bets

I’m going with the Patriots -9 this weekend. I thought the Broncos would handle Baltimore, but they had 3 TO’s plus the secondary was chewed up on big plays. I don’t see Brady and the Patriots making the same mistakes that the Broncos made.

The Ravens beat the Patriots 31-30 in week 3 this season at home. Flacco had 382 passing yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT in that match-up and he’ll need to replicate that performance to even stand a chance. Gronks is a big loss, but NE doesn’t need him to cover here.

I’ll also be betting the over 51.5 points in this game, as I see both teams scoring lots of points like in the week 3 game. Brady seems unstoppable right now and Flacco had a good game against a stingy defense. NE has an over/under record of 7-2 at home this year.

After every game went over the total last week I didn’t think I’d be betting the over this week, but I don’t think they set this total high enough. The total is already up 1 pt since opening this week and I expect the total to keep going up, so bet it now.

About The Author

has written 67 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds