2013 NFC Conference Championship Odds & Predictions

by Scott on January 16, 2013

In the 1st match-up on Sunday at 3:00pm ET on FOX, the 49ers take on the Falcons. San Fran looked good last week while Atlanta faltered in the 2nd half and barely came away with the victory at home. This should be a great match-up that I think will be close.

2013 NFC Conference Championship Preview

San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons +4.5 (-110) / Over 48.5 vs. Under 48.5

Colin-Kaepernick-NFCAtlanta was up 20 to start the 4th quarter last weekend against Seattle, but the Seahawks scored 21 unanswered to take the lead in the game (28-27) with 31 seconds left. Matt “Ice” Ryan made two quick passes and Bryant kicked a 49-yd FG to win the game 30-28.

Ryan struggled a bit; as he went 24/35 for 250 yards, 3 TD’s and 2 INT’s against Seattle. The 49ers forced 3 fumbles (1 recovered) in last week’s game against GB plus they picked off Rodgers once, so Ryan will need to be much smarter with the football on Sunday.

GB kept up with SF in the 1st half last week (24-21), but the 49ers controlled the 2H and won the game 45-31. Kaepernick was great and finished 17/31 for 263 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT plus he also rushed for 181 yards (2 TD’s) on 18 carries against the Packers.

The 49ers rushed for over 300+ yards including 119 yards by Gore (1 TD) on 23 carries. Crabtree played a huge role in the game and he caught 9 passes for 119 yards and 2 TD’s. Crabtree, Gore and more importantly Kaepernick needs to play well against Atlanta.

I was very impressed with the Falcons run game last week as well against Seattle who ranked 10th this year. Turner had 98 yards on 14 carries and Rodgers had 64 yards on 10 carries, but this week they’ll be in tough against the 49ers 4th ranked rush defense.

The two key players in this game on offense are the two QB’s. Kaepernick has been a beast lately and I think he’s going to kill the Falcons on the ground and through the air to Crabtree once the Falcons start stacking the box to stop the run.

Ryan has been great at the Georgia Dome this year, but last week he was a bit shaky with the 2 INT’s. He can’t afford INT’s against the 49ers because they’ll capitalize on them and the 49ers defense is a bit better than what the Falcons had to face versus SEA.

Matt-Ryan-NFCThis year the Niners only averaged 2.3 sacks per game (16th) and they only had 1 on Rodgers last week. Putting pressure on Ryan is imperative because he has so many weapons to throw to downfield when he has time including Jones, White and Gonzalez.

All three players played well last week. White had 5 catches 76 yards (1 TD), Gonzalez had 6 catches for 51 yards (1 TD) and Jones had 6 catches for 59 yards. SF ranks 4th against the pass (200.2 PYPG) and they can shutdown just about any WR.

Tarell Brown, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are all probable for the 49ers this week and John Abraham on the Falcons looks like he’s going to be able to play this week at home, as his injury report stated that he just re-tweaked his ankle against Seattle.

49ers vs. Falcons Best Bets

Atlanta is now 8-1 this season at the Georgia Dome, which is worrisome, as I’m betting the 49ers to cover the -4.5 pts. I’m a little bit worried that this will be a 3-pt game, but the explosive Kaepernick has been impressive and I expect him to outplay Ryan.

Ryan makes too many playoff mistakes and despite winning last week they almost blew a huge lead. SF isn’t going to go down early like Seattle did. Once SF gets a lead the defense usually holds onto it and the offense runs out the clock with their run game.

The total is at 48.5 pts and I think this is a bit high despite the offensive output of these two teams last week. Atlanta only gives up an average of 18.7 PPG (5th) while the 49ers are even tougher to score on and allow an average of just 17.1 PPG (2nd).

Last week’s Atlanta game went over the total, but this season the Falcons over/under record at home was 2-7. We’re getting some value on this total in my opinion due to public perception from last week’s games and I’m betting the under 48.5 points.

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has written 67 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds