2013 NFL Picks: Week 1 Best Bets

by Scott on September 6, 2013

I hope everyone had a great off-season and was able to watch the Broncos dominate the Ravens last night on opening kick-off. I’m back this year and will provide my predictions again. Last year I predicted every game and hit roughly 53% at the end of the season.

Rather than predict every game this season my goal is to only provide my best bets. This may include money lines, point spreads, game totals, props, teasers and parlays. My goal is to make a minimum of 10 units by the end of the regular season this year.

NFL Week 1 Point Spread & Over/Under Picks

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers –3 (-120) vs. New York Jets – 2 Units

Vincent-Jackson-W1A couple shops are still offering the Buccaneers at –3 (-120) and I think buying the ½ points for $.10 is worth it even though I have TB dominating this game. The Jets have named Geno Smith as the starter and I expect the Buccaneers to feast on him all game.

The Buccaneers had 18 INT’s (8th) last season and I expect them to get 1-2 in week 1 against the rookie. Doug Martin had a monster year last season and he gets to go up against the 26th ranked rushing defense from last season that allowed 133.6 RYPG.

Another reason I love this game is because the Buccaneers only allowed 82.5 RYPG (1st) last season. Greene is gone for the Jets and I think the Jets running game will suffer. This will force Smith to air it out and he’s bound to make a few mistakes in his first NFL game.

  • Minnesota Vikings +6 (-110) vs. Detroit Lions – 1 Unit

This game is worrying me a bit, but I’m just not sold on the Lions. Some shops are up to +6 right now and I think that’s a great line, as even if the Lions win they shouldn’t cover the spread in this division rivalry match-up between two teams that hate each other.

I love the addition of Reggie Bush to the Lions, but we have to see this offense work together first, as last year they were abysmal at getting into the end zone. Ponder now has a new offensive weapon in Greg Jennings who I think will re-emerge as a WR1 target.

Peterson rushed for nearly 300 rushing yards in two games last season against the Lions and I expect more of the game. The Vikings defense is also better than the Lions and they know how to play as a team without taking silly penalties every other drive.

  • Raiders vs. Colts Under 47 Points (-110) – 1 Unit

I think this over/under line is inflated because of how poorly the Raiders defense played in the preseason. The Colts also come into this season with a lot of hype due to Luck having experience and the depth at WR, but I expect a low scoring game here.

It looks like Pryor is playing for the Raiders in week 1 and I’m surprised because he can barely throw the football. The Colts can just stack the box and make sure they don’t get beat by the option for big plays. Last season both of these teams struggled to score.

2013 NFL Week 1 Teaser

  • Patriots –5 / Bengals +9 / Vikings +11 / Colts –4.5 (+250) – 1 Unit

Andrew-Luck-W1The Patriots match-up against the Bills who are being led by Tuel who you’ll shortly find out isn’t an NFL QB. The Patriots will be glad to be back on the field after the off-season they had and I think Belichick will try to run up the score as much as he can.

I like the Bengals SU on the road against the Bears, so getting them at over a TD is a no-brainer for me. The Vikings should never lose to the Lions by over 10 points unless they play terribly, but I don’t think that’ll happen in week 1 in a division game they need to win.

The Colts get an easy home game against the Raiders who as I mentioned will be starting Pryor. I don’t think Oakland is going to be able to mustard much offense and they’ll be lucky to score 14 points. At 5Dimes this 6-point teaser pays out at +250 odds.

Week 1 NFL Money Line Parlay

  • Falcons / Buccaneers / Bengals (+768) – ½ Unit

Don’t get me wrong parlays are hard to hit, but each week I’ll be betting one. This week I’m going with two underdogs in the Falcons and Bengals plus the Buccaneers to beef up the payout. I mentioned why I think the Buccaneers will win already.

Atlanta is on the road against the Saints and most people think because Payton is back on the sidelines the Saints will be amazing. I don’t think that’ll happen though. Atlanta has a stronger defense and arguably a better offense due to their depth at WR.

Cincinnati is also on the road at Soldiers Field, which is a tough place to play. Cincinnati has a young offense, but they’ve been with each other for two years now. Chicago seems like a team moving down to me and I still don’t’ think Cutler is a good decision maker.

About The Author

has written 67 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds