New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Picks, Spread & Review 2012

by Sports Options

The Bills may be without Spiller and Jackson this week in the backfield. If that’s the case that puts more pressure on Fitzpatrick and I don’t think he’ll perform well with pressure. The Pats are now 1-2 and desperate to win, so I’ll take the better team by -4.

Point Spread: New England Patriots -4 (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills +4 (-110)

Moneyline: New England Patriots -210 vs. Buffalo Bills +175

Game Total: Over 52 (-110) vs. Under 52 (-110)

New England is coming off a last-second 31-30 loss at Baltimore last Sunday night as +2½ point road underdogs. QB Tom Brady completed 28-of-41 passes for 335 yards and a touchdown for the Patriots (1-2), who are below .500 for the first time since 2003, when they started the year with a Week #1 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Wes Welker bounced back from a slow start over his first two games with eight catches for 142 yards, while Brandon Lloyd had 108 yards on nine receptions for New England, which was coming off a stunning 20-18 home loss to Arizona the previous week.

New England was outgained 503-396 in total yards and also had 10 penalties for 83 yards in the loss to the Ravens. With the loss, the Patriots fell to 6-1 against the Ravens in the regular season, and 7-2 including the playoffs.

The Patriots began the season with a 34-13 win at Tennessee. Buffalo posted their second straight win last week with a 24-14 victory at Cleveland as -2½ point favorites. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for three touchdowns as Buffalo earned their first road victory since Week #1 of last season. Fitzpatrick threw for 208 yards, completing 22-of-35 passes with no interceptions.

Steve Johnson caught seven passes for 61 yards with a TD reception, while T.J. Graham and C.J. Spiller also caught touchdown passes to help the Bills (2-1) end their eight-game road skid. However, Spiller left the game with a shoulder injury and did not return.

Before he left, Spiller reached 300 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in his first three games, the first player to do it since Thomas Jones did it this in 2004 with the Jets. Buffalo had a 344-240 edge in total offense and the defense sacked Browns QB Brandon Weeden four times.

Mario Williams recorded his first two sacks after signing a six-year, $100 million deal with Buffalo in the off-season. Buffalo and New England split the season series last year with the Bills winning 34-31 at home as +7 point dogs in September and New England returning the favor in a 49-21 beating at home as -10 point favorites in the regular-season finale.

New England is 51-24-3 ATS on the road and 8-3 ATS vs. AFC East teams, as well as 35-16 ATS following a SU loss and 11-2 ATS as a division road favorite of -4 points or less. Buffalo is 33-16 ATS vs. losing teams, but only 4-9 ATS against division opponents. The favorite is 14-5 ATS when these two teams meet and the road team is 10-4 ATS the last 14 meetings.

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