Boxing in January and February 2013

by erich schulte on January 19, 2013

As usual, we have a bit of a wait until the next match between two superstar boxers. But boxing is a year-round, world-wide sport so there’s always some interesting matches to chose from, at least from a betting perspective. Here are some bets to look out for over the next few weeks.

January 30th: Danny Geale over Anthony Mundine @ -350

Danny-GealeThis is a sweet spot. Anthony Mundine is a fading fighter with a big name in Australia. Danny Geale is a rising fighter with big talent. Guess who we are betting on.

Geale will come forward in this fight. He will throw vastly more punches. He will land significantly more punches. Danny Geale, not the 37-year-old Mundine, is the fighter who will make money for promoters in the future. With no real threat of a knockout by either man, it is very difficult to envision any outcome other than an easy Geale decision.

February 9th: Carl Frampton over Kiko Martinez @ -450

Carl-FramptonWe pay a bit more for the favorite here. If parlays are part of your repertoire, consider combining Frampton and Geale for a 57% return on two mismatches.

Frampton will be an even bigger favorite with the judges than Geale. He is already filling 10,000 seat arenas on the strength of his own name. Though this is just his 16th fight, Frampton’s skill and athleticism are both nearing the level of a serious world title contender.

Kiko Martinez is a good European level fighter who, importantly, does not possess much knockout power. These two men just operate at different speeds and on different levels. Kiko is a regional pub quiz champion. Frampton is being considered for a professorship at Oxford.

Frampton will badly outbox Kiko, inside and outside. Kiko can make it a tough night with his body work and tenacity, but Frampton is too slick to absorb enough punishment for that to alter the result. Plus,“The Jackal” will be blasting away with the harder punches as Kiko chases those body shots.

Though Kiko is an accomplished professional, there is no plausible way for him to win this fight.

February 9th: Fernando Guerrero over Peter Quillen @ +550 – +650

Fernando-GuerreroQuillen is talented and hyped, but he has only fought one match at this level. He won with six knockdowns against Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam, but was unable to knock out N’Dam, who outboxed Quillen for much of the fight.

Fernando Guerrero, a former U.S. amateur champion, is another good boxer, a southpaw and trained by the tactically minded Virgil Hunter. Guerrero throws more punches than Quillen and has the slickness to stay alive.

Guerrero’s suspect chin enduring Quillen’s power is a big concern. Another concern is a biased decision in favor of Golden Boy’s next big thing, “Kid Chocolate” Quillen. But this is offset by the fact that Guerrero has very good power of his own, which will be a new test for Quillen.

The bottom line is that Guerrero is a better boxer than Quillen, has knockout power and we only need him to turn that into a victory one time in five.

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Erich lives in Las Vegas, plays poker and bets on boxing.