2013 March Madness Sweet 16 Odds & Predictions

by Scott on March 26, 2013

There were a number of big upsets during the opening rounds of the 2013 March Madness tournament, but none of the upsets were bigger than #15 Florida Gulf Coast knocking off #2 Georgetown in R2 and then #7 SD State in R3 in the South Region.

#9 Wichita State and #13 La Salle both pulled off big upsets this past weekend as well to make the S16. Wichita State knocked off the #8 Pittsburgh Panthers in R2 and #1 Gonzaga in R3 while La Salle beat #4 Kansas State and #12 Ole Miss.

It quickly became evident that #6 Arizona and #12 Oregon should have been higher seeds as well. Both teams made it to the S16 this year and have been playing with a chip on their shoulder and it should be interesting if they can keep up the momentum.

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2013 March Madness S16 Picks

  • #2 Miami Florida -5.5 (-110) vs. #3 Marquette +5.5 (-110)

Kenny-Kadji-MMMarquette managed to barely get through their two opening games. They beat Davidson 59-58 and Butler 74-72 in a great game, but I don’t think they’ll be able to beat Miami (FL). However, I do think that Marquette will keep it within the +5.5 pt spread.

The Hurricanes buried Pacific 78-49 in their opening game and then barely beat Illinois 63-59 in a back and forth game. On paper these two teams match-up well against each other and this should be another close game that’s decided in the final minute.

Vander Blue leads the Golden Eagles and has scored 45 points in two games. Marquette looked a lot better against Butler than they did against Davidson and I expect them to push the Hurricanes to the limit in a close game that Miami FL wins by 2-3 pts.

  • #2 Ohio State -3.5 (-110) vs. #6 Arizona +3.5 (-110)

Arizona has looked great in the tournament with wins over Belmont (81-64) and Harvard (74-51). The Buckeyes have looked just as good and played against tougher competition in my opinion. OSU beat Iona 95-70 in the R2 and Iowa State 78-75 in R3.

The Buckeyes should have beat Iowa State by more, but they blew a 2H lead and had to win on a buzzer beater. For one of the best defensive teams in the nation this year it wasn’t a good performance in the 2H, but I expect them to learn from that.

Arizona is a higher paced offensive team that scores more points than OSU, but the Buckeyes are a suffocating defense that will also limit the possessions in this game. Arizona is going to find it tough to find easy baskets and I like the favorites to cover.

  • #1 Indiana -5.5 (-110) vs. #4 Syracuse +5.5 (-110)

Victor-Oladipo-S16Syracuse surprised a lot of people in their 1st game by dominating Montana 81-34 to easily cover ATS. In their 2nd game they had a tougher time, but they got past Cal 66-60. Indiana easily beat James Madison 83-62 and beat Temple 58-52 in a close game.

The Orange went 12 minutes without a FG against Cal, but Cal was unable to capitalize. Indiana was the 2nd highest scoring team this year and they’ll capitalize when the other team isn’t shooting well from the field and I like the Hoosiers to cover ATS.

Part of the reason Cal didn’t knock-off Syracuse was because they were 4-21 from 3-point land. Indiana shoots the 3-pointer well, but they also have a great inside game. The Orange will keep it close in the 1H, but the Hoosiers run away on late FT’s to cover.

  • #9 Wichita State -4 (-110) vs. #13 La Salle +4 (-110)

La Salle has been a big surprise so far during the 2013 March Madness tournament. La Salle has played in two exciting games so far with wins over KSU (63-61) and Ole Miss (76-74). La Salle has been shooting the lights out in their 1st two games.

Wichita State has been very impressive as well and at -4 pts they’re my favorite bet in the S16 round. Wichita State had to beat a tough Pittsburgh team (73-55) in R2 and then they knocked off the #1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (76-70) in R3.

The Shockers are well coached and always seem to light it up during March. Wichita State is very active defensively and I think the pressure they put on opposing teams in the backcourt is going to cause La Salle to get frustrated and turnover the ball a lot.

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  • #1 Louisville -10 (-110) vs. #12 Oregon +10 (-110)

EJ-Singler-S16The Ducks have been playing with a chip on their shoulder and have beaten Oklahoma State (68-55) and Saint Louis (74-57). The committee did a bad job seeding Oregon, but they’ll know be tested against the #1 Louisville Cardinals.

Louisville has breezed through the opening two rounds with wins over North Carolina A&T (79-48) and CSU (82-56). If the Ducks get into a shooting game with the Cardinals they’re going to lose, as the Cardinals put up a lot of points and play great defense.

Oregon proved they can still score against a top defense when they dominated Saint Louis. If the Ducks continue to shoot the ball like they have been in the opening rounds then I definitely expect them to stay within the +10 pt spread in the S16.

  • #1 Kansas -2 (-110) vs. #4 Michigan +2 (-110)

Kansas beat WKU easily in R2 64-57, but they had a scare against UNC. They ended up winning by 12 pts (70-58), but they were losing after the 1H by 9 pts and needed an amazing 2H to takeover the game and knock-out the Tar Heels.

Once the Jayhawks started feeding the ball down low to Withey he was either scoring or passing over the double team. If they continue playing through Withey they’ll have a great chance to win the championship this year, as the team is very talented.

Michigan is going to be a huge test for the Jayhawks, as Michigan has a great outside game and decent inside game that should be able to disrupt Withey. Michigan beat South Dakota State (71-56) and dominated a tough VCU team (78-53) in R3.

  • #2 Duke -2 (-110) vs. #3 Michigan State +2 (-110)

Seth-Curry-S16With Ryan Kelly in the line-up everything seems to gel for the Blue Devils. They’ve dominated Albany (73-61) and then in a game that was expected to be fairly close Duke easily beat Creighton (66-50) in a very lopsided game that Creighton has no chance in.

Michigan State made their two games look easy as well by beating Valparaiso (65-54) and Memphis (70-48). MSU hasn’t been shooting that well from deep or the charity stripe, but Nix has put in some dominating performances in the paint.

MSU plays tough defense, but I don’t think they can match the scoring of the Blue Devils. Duke has several go-to scorers that can put up a lot of points quickly and if the Spartans go down too much I don’t think they have the shooting to catch up.

  • #3 Florida -13 (-110) vs. #15 Florida Gulf Coast +13 (-110)

The biggest surprise has been Florida Gulf Coast this year in the tournament, but I’m afraid their Cinderella is going to run out in the S16 round against the Gators. Florida has had two convincing wins against Northwestern State (79-47) and Minny (78-64).

Minnesota was a pretty good team this year, but the Gators easily beat them. Florida is a contender to win the tournament and while I think covering a -13 point spread is going to be difficult they’re going to be able to win this game convincingly.

Florida shoots the basketball great, but they’ve also been using their big men more often down low in the paint and that has been a big reason why they’ve been dominating opponents. Florida Gulf Coast won’t have the talent to beat Florida.

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Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds