2012 NCAA Football Week 11 Odds & Predictions

by Scott

After a bad week 9 I bounced back this past week with a 5-1 record. My only loss was USC who couldn’t keep it close against the Ducks in what was basically their championship game. I was surprised that the Trojans came out flat in the game. I still haven’t had a perfect week with my best bets in college football, but I’ll look to change that this week with my six predictions.

Florida State -14 (-110) vs. Virginia Tech +14 (+100) – Pick: Virginia Tech +14

Virginia Tech has been brutal on the road this year, but they haven’t been that bad at home. They have a 4-1 home record and in their lone loss to the Bearcats it was a close 27-24 game. Florida State is 8-1 this year and by far the best team that the Hokies will have to play this season. With V-Tech not even bowl eligible at 4-5 I expect them to give a solid effort on Thursday night.

FSU ranks amongst the best in the nation in points scored (44.8 PPG – 3rd) and points against (12PPG – 2nd). They can run or pass the football on opponents and V-Tech is going to have their hands full. However, on the road FSU hasn’t been blowing out that many opponents and they actually haven’t won on the road by 14 or more, so I’m siding with the underdog here.

Iowa State +10.5 (-110) vs. Texas -10.5 (+100) – Pick: Texas -10.5

Texas is 7-2 and on a 3-game win streak currently heading into this weekend. They have a home game against Iowa State and I’m betting on them to cover the big spread although I’m definitely not happy with the hook. Texas is ranked 11th in points scored, as they average 40.3 PPG, but they also rank 92nd in points against (31.6PPG) and that isn’t going to cut it.

This week they play the Cyclones though, who have struggled on offence the entire year. Iowa State averages 24.4 PPG (89th) and they only allow 21.4 PPG (19th), but this Texas offence at home shouldn’t have problems putting up 30-40 points. If Texas is able to score on the Cyclones defence I can’t imagine that Iowa State will be able to keep up on the scoreboard.

Texas A&M +13.5 (-103) vs. Alabama -13.5 (-107) – Pick: Texas A&M +13.5

This point spread is a bit too big in my opinion and I’m backing the underdog here again. Texas A&M is 7-2 with their only losses on the year coming against LSU (24-19) and Florida (20-17). The Aggies stayed in both of those games right until they end and I expect them to be able to keep this game close as well. Texas A&M should be able to limit Bama’s production on offence.

If the Aggies can shutdown the Bama offence they’ll be able to stay within the point spread here. The Aggies will be able to put up points as well, but not that many. In order to win this game ATS they need to hold Bama to 24 or less points. Manziel will also need to have a good game because I doubt the Aggies 10th ranked rushing offence will move the football well against Bama.

Oregon -28 (-105) vs. California +28 (-105) – Pick: Oregon -28

The big question in this game is whether or not Oregon will run up the score, as they haven’t at times this year. California hasn’t been playing well and they just want the season to end at this point. Oregon is a perfect 9-0 and with this being a conference game I expect the Ducks to come out strongly and build up a quick lead against the Golden Bears.

Washington beat Cal last week 21-13 and the Golden Bears have now lost their L3 games. Oregon smoked Washington 52-21 early in the year and I think a score similar to that is what we’ll see in this game. Oregon will be able to run the football all over Cal and it won’t take long to wear down this defensive line, which hasn’t done well stopping anyone this year.

Oregon State +4 (-105) vs. Stanford -4 (-105) – Pick: Oregon State +4

This is going to be one of the best college football games of the week, especially if you like defence. These two teams play great on defence, as the Beavers only allow 18.1 PPG (19th) and the Cardinals only allow 16.6 PPG (12th) on average. I also like the pass game of the Beavers, as they average 306.1 passing yards per game (21st). With their pass game they’re never out of it.

Stanford hasn’t been that good offensively, as they rank 89th passing (207.2 PYPG) and 58th rushing (166.6 RYPG). If they start to fall behind in this game they’ll find it hard to catch-up against the Beavers who have been tough all season. This is a huge Pac-12 game for both teams and I expect at the very worst Stanford pulling off a 3-pt win at home, which would mean we cover ATS.

Mississippi State +14.5 (-105) vs. LSU -14.5 (-105) – Pick: Mississippi State +14.5

Both the Bulldogs and Tigers have a 7-2 (3-2 SEC) record coming into this match-up, which makes it very intriguing. The Bulldogs are middle of the pack in the country offensively, as they average 230.7 PYPG (63rd) and 156.4 RYPG (69th). They’ve been able to score an average of 30.8 PPG (48th) this season, but obviously they’ll score below that average against the tough LSU defence.

The Tigers have been able to rush the football this year, but they can’t pass. The Bulldogs will be able to stack the box against the Tigers this weekend and that should keep them in the game to the end. This spread is up at over two TD’s currently and I think that the Bulldogs are being underrated. Expect a close game that LSU wins by 3-10 pts at home on Saturday.

About The Author

has written 63 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds