2013 NFL Super Bowl Betting Analysis, Odds & Picks

by Scott on January 28, 2013

Superbowl 47The 2013 Super Bowl game is going to be hosted at the Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. We’re now under a week away; as the game will be kicked off this Sunday at 6:30PM ET. With 100’s of betting options for the big game there is money to be made.

Two defensive minded teams are in this year’s Super Bowl, as the Baltimore Ravens will play the San Francisco 49ers, but you’ve got to wonder if we’re going to see another high scoring game like we’ve been seeing in most of the playoff games this season.

2013 NFL Superbowl Betting Odds

Point Spread: Baltimore Ravens +4 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers -4 (-110)

Money Line: Baltimore Ravens +162 vs. San Francisco 49ers -180

Game Total: Over 47.5 Points (-110) vs. Under 47.5 Points (-110)

Bet on the 2013 Super Bowl Spread, ML, Total & Props at 5Dimes!

Ravens vs. 49ers Match-Up Preview

The Baltimore Ravens 10-6 (6-9-1 ATS) have had to play through three tough playoff games to get to Super Bowl XLVII. Baltimore beat the Colts (24-9), Broncos (38-35) and then they got their revenge against the Patriots (28-13) in the AFC Championship.

The San Francisco 49ers 11-4-1 (9-7 ATS) beat the Packers (45-31) and Falcons (28-24) to get into the Super Bowl. Early action has been coming in on the Ravens this week and the point spread is down to +3.5 at most bookies although you can still get +4 pts.

Who Has the Edge on Offense?

Joe-Flacco-SB1This season the 49ers averaged 206.1 PYPG (23rd), 155.7 RYPG (4th) and 24.8 PPG (11th) during the regular season. The 49ers so far have averaged 248 PYPG, 236 RYPG and 36.5 PPG in their two playoff games against the Packers and Falcons.

Baltimore’s offense struggled during the regular season, as they averaged 24.9 PPG (10th), 233.7 PYPG (15th) and 118.8 RPYG (11th). In the playoffs the offense has been better, as they’re averaging 284.3 PYPG, 148.7 RYPG and 30 PPG through three games.

We have two QB’s in this game with some questions still left to be answered. Colin Kaepernick lacks experience and Joe Flacco is known to make untimely mistakes in the biggest situations, but both QB’s have been great in the playoffs this season.

Kaepernick has been killing teams with his feet, but his arm is also getting the job done. Kaepernick has a QB rating of 105.9 and he has 698 total yards of offense in two playoff games. Flacco has a QB rating of 114.7 and still hasn’t thrown an interception.

I expect these two teams to start rushing the football early in the game with their superstar RB’s. Ray Rice has had 64 carries for 247 yards (2 TD’s) and Frank Gore has had 44 carries for 209 yards (3 TD’s) in the playoffs. I give the edge to Gore.

With Kaepernick such a threat to rush the football it’s opening up more room on the ground for Gore. While the 49ers have the edge on the ground in my opinion, I think that the Ravens have the edge in passing due to the ability for Flacco to throw deep.

Six players on the Ravens offense have 4+ receptions in the playoffs for a combined average of 17.7 yards per catch. SF has been one of the top pass defending teams in the NFL, but so far in the playoffs they’ve allowed an average of 326.5 PYPG.

Who Has the Edge on Defense?

Colin-Kaepernick-SBDuring the regular season the 49ers had one of the best defenses in the NFL. San Francisco allowed an average of 94.2 RYPG (4th) and 200.2 PYPG (4th) while only giving up 17.1 PPG (2nd). However, we haven’t seen that same defense in the playoffs yet.

Baltimore allowed 122.8 RYPG (20th), 228.1 PYPG (17th) and 21.5 PPG (12th) on average in the regular season. The big issue was that the Ravens were injured on defense, but they’ve been healthy in the playoffs and have been shutting down opposing offenses.

Ray Lewis will be playing his last game of his career this Sunday. Lewis is a great leader and the entire defense has been rallying behind him in his last push. Lewis leads the defense with 44 combined tackles in the playoffs and has been playing great.

The Ravens have averaged 2 sacks per game, 1.3 forced fumbles per game and 1.7 INT’s per game in the playoffs. Corey Graham and Cary Williams both have 2 INT’s already each and Kaepernick will need to be careful against this active defense.

I give the edge on defense to the Ravens based on how both teams have played in the playoffs. If you take away the two special teams TD’s that the Ravens gave up against the Broncos the defense has only allowed an average of 14.3 PPG against top teams.

Keys to Winning the 2013 NFL Super Bowl

Ray-Rice-SB1San Francisco needs to try and get more pressure than they’ve been getting lately. They only have 2 sacks in the playoffs and the defense has been picked apart due to the QB having too much time. When Flacco gets time his speedy WR’s will find open field.

The 49ers also have to keep pounding the rock with Gore and Kaepernick. Baltimore has allowed over 100 rushing yards in their three playoff games, so San Francisco should have success on offense if they continue running the football often.

Baltimore can win Super Bowl 47 by testing the 40ers secondary early like other teams have. The 49ers have been down early in both of their games and have had to mount a comeback, but that could prove difficult against a stout Ravens defense.

Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta have a combined 35 receptions for 611 yards and 7 TD’s in the playoffs. Flacco has been sacked just 4 times in the playoffs and he should have time to find his WR’s against the 49ers defense.

2013 NFL Super Bowl Prediction

Bet on the Baltimore Ravens +4 (-110)

I’m betting the Baltimore Ravens to win Superbowl 47 this weekend. It’s important that the Ravens get out to a quick lead like the Packers and Falcons did against SF. I think Baltimore’s defense is much better than ATL/GB and they can hold a lead.

The over/under is high because most games have been going over in the playoffs this year. I lean to the under because both of these teams have great defenses when they show up to play, but I’m not confident either defense will make enough stops.

Bet on the 2013 Super Bowl Spread, ML, Total & Props at 5Dimes!

2013 NFL Superbowl Props Best Bets

There are lots of great prop bets for the Superbowl including a huge selection at 5Dimes. I want to take a look at a few of the prop bets that stand out to me this weekend that I’ve already bet on. You can bet on these prop bets at 5Dimes in the USA.

Bet on Frank Gore Over 19.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)

Frank-Gore-SBFrank Gore had 23 carries against the Packers and 21 carries against the Falcons. With the way the Ravens have had troubles in the playoffs stopping the run I don’t see why the 49ers wouldn’t hand Gore the rock often at the beginning of the game.

Bet on Total Sacks Made Under 4 (+110)

As I mentioned above the 49ers don’t get much pressure, but they do have a solid o-line protecting Kaepernick. Kaepernick is also very mobile and breaks sacks often. He has been sacked just twice in the playoffs. I like fewer than 4 sacks in this game.

Bet on the Ravens to Score 1st (+110)

San Francisco has gone down early in both playoff games. I think Flacco is going to test this defense early with the deep ball and I expect the Ravens to take an early lead. You could bet them to win the 1st Q (+135), but I think Ravens scoring 1st is better.

Will There Be A Lead Change in the 2nd Half? Yes (+170)

If this game is close down to the end like I think it’s going to be I think it’s likely we see a lead change in the 2nd half and at +170 odds this prop bet stood out to me. If the Ravens take an early lead I could see the 49ers clawing back into the game in the 2H.

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has written 67 awesome posts on tipsandpicks.com.

Scott primarily focuses on the US sports at Tips and Picks and he spends most of his time analyzing the betting markets to ensure bettors always get the best odds